I knew writing the book wouldn’t allow me to have a serious foresight on this blog, but i didn’t expect this. I have a backlog of 100+ links to treat and, you’ll understand I’m sure, I focus on the book. I’ve created a new model (DIRT), oriented towards Business Models and am busy with a methodology for using both DICoDE and DIRT in an innovation context. I’ve also updated this morning the whole structure of the book. I’ll blog about all this in due time…
I keep the foresight links to treat, maybe i’ll have more time in a few weeks. Thanks for your patience and understanding, and don’t hesitate to contact me or comment! Cheers!
Again many interesting stories that could be DiCoDEd. I’ll log them here, in a light foresight entry, in order to come back later if this book leaves me some time. Hope you enjoy it too!
[Facebook, Data, Google, Aggregation, advertising, email, privacy, e-commerce, f-commerce, AdWords] http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/11/google-fears-facebook/ and http://ifindkarma.posterous.com/is-facebook-worth-twice-what-yahoo-is-worth and http://techcrunch.com/2010/10/02/facebook-bigger-google/ and http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/09/give-us-our-data-facebook/ and http://www.fastcompany.com/1701119/adwords-is-dying-and-google-knows-it-and-they-are-doing-something-about-it #afterkillingportalsfacebookwillkillsearchandemails
[OS, Hardware, Software, Smartphone, Mobile, Carrier] http://www.engadget.com/2010/11/08/editorial-should-your-next-mobile-os-update-cost-you/ #whatwilluserspayforandwithwhichcurrency?
[Simplicity, Relevance, Convenience, Design, User XP] http://blogs.gartner.com/brian_prentice/2010/08/24/simplicity-is-not-overrated-its-misunderstood/ #doyoudifferentiateonqualityoronquantity?
[TV, US, Hulu, OPEC] http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/08/hulu-opec/ #liveanddietogether
[Chris Anderson, Media, Wired, Conde Nast] http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-chris-anderson-wired-2010-11 #ineedtotalkaboutDiCoDEtothisguy
[Mobile, Engagement, advertising, Estee Lauder, Tiffany & Co, Macy’s] http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/advertising/8101.html
[TV, Android, Youtube, App] http://mashable.com/2010/11/09/youtube-remote/
[Media, Mobile, Metrics, Figures, US] http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/media/8072.html
[4G, LTE] http://www.juniperresearch.com/reports/4G_LTE_Revenue_Opportunities
Posted in Light Foresight
Tagged 4G, advertising, AdWords, Aggregation, Android, app, Carrier, Chris Anderson, Conde Nast, convenience, Data, Design, e-commerce, email, Engagement, Estee Lauder, f-commerce, Facebook, figures, Google, Hardware, Hulu, LTE, Macy’s, media, Metrics, Mobile, OPEC, OS, Privacy, Relevance, Simplicity, smartphone, Software, Tiffany & Co, TV, US, user XP, Wired, Youtube
Rocking some links before kicking the end of the second chapter (draft); no storytelling lesson today:
[Seesmic, Loic Le Meur, Business Model] http://mashable.com/2010/11/07/seesmic-for-enterprise/ #beagilenotagirouette
[Apple, MacBook, MacBook Air, UI, GUI, NUI, User XP, Mac OS Lion] http://www.engadget.com/2010/11/07/switched-on-the-ipadification-of-mac-os/ #smart(acrossthe)linemanagement
[Microsoft, Kinect, NUI, Vocal Activation] http://kotaku.com/5682793/the-future-of-kinect-how-microsoft-plans-to-put-a-video-game-controller-in-everything #NUIpower
[Hulu, CamCast, Google TV, NBC] http://www.engadget.com/2010/11/08/google-tvs-fancast-com-backdoor-to-hulu-video-closed-syfy-star/ and http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/11/08/now-even-fancast-com-is-blocked-on-google-tv/#SteveJobstoldyou
[HTC, App Store, Android] http://www.engadget.com/2010/11/08/htc-said-to-be-working-on-its-own-app-store-would-make-a-lot-of/ #(notyet)lastbutnot(atall)least
[Ebook, iPad, Kindle] http://mashable.com/2010/11/08/e-book-market-surges-to-1-billion-report/ #whosnext?
[Google, Hyperconnectivity, WiFi] http://mashable.com/2010/11/08/google-free-wi-fi/ #itsnotinourplansbutweworkonitthough
[Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook, Management, Forrester] http://blogs.forrester.com/george_colony/10-11-08-perspective_on_zuckerberg #itsnotwhoyouarebutwhatyoudo
[Google, Facebook, Data, Gmail] http://gizmodo.com/5685176/facebook-and-gmails-dispute-over-your-contact-details-has-got-dirtier and http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/08/facebook-finds-a-new-way-to-liberate-your-gmail-contact-data/ #openontheinside
[Facebook, Ads, US, Advertising] http://techcrunch.com/2010/11/08/comscore-facebook-now-accounts-for-nearly-1-in-4-display-ads-in-the-u-s/ #in5yearsbiggerthangoogletoday
Posted in Light Foresight
Tagged ads, advertising, Android, App Store, Apple, Business Model, CamCast, Data, eBook, Facebook, Forrester, GMail, Google, Google TV, GUI, HTC, Hulu, Hyperconnectivity, iPad, Kindle, Kinect, Loic Le Meur, Mac OS Lion, MacBook, MacBook Air, Management, Mark Zuckerberg, Microsoft, NBC, NUI, Seesmic, UI, US, user XP, Vocal Activation, WiFi
Intro: Last quarter was the first time ever that US pay TV subscription rates were down. Now, according to GigaOM’s calculations, big cable suffered another set back in Q3, waving goodbye to over 500,000 subscribers in total. Comcast was saddled with over half of the carnage and lost 275,000 customers, while Time Warner took a 155,000 subscriber hit. Charter Communications and Cablevision fared slightly better, but still added 63,800 and 24,500 respectively to the industry pit of despair.
Naturally, the blame game for the poor numbers was aimed squarely at the weak economy and increased competition from over-the-top video providers.
My Take: So, not only Comcast is in trouble on US market. Also other players. The time is now for US cable companies, and time to consider things for Europe… and blaming it on the economy, well, music major companies and movie studios also tried denial…
Posted in Foresight
Tagged Cablevision, Charter Communications, Comcast, Economy, EU, GigaOM, IDTV, IPTV, Time Warner, TV, US, video
Being very busy lately on the writing of the book (the drafted structure is fixed, so I need to fill it) and other minor things, I am less able to do an active foresight. That’s why I’ll post interesting links with keywords related (or not) to DiCoDE. If you want to exchange around one of them, don’t hesitate to comment!
Here we go:
[Attention, User, User Currencies] http://www.mediaculture.fr/2010/10/28/comment-la-course-a-l’attention-renforce-la-societe-de-l’ego/
[FCC, US, Regulation, TV, Cable] http://paidcontent.org/article/419-news-corp.-cablevision-reach-deal-in-principle-fox-service-restored/
[Regulation, Copyright, Privacy, Youtube, Video] http://paidcontent.org/article/419-the-dancing-baby-lawsuit-will-shape-future-of-fair-use/
[Location, LBS, Context, Mobile, Advertising, Privacy, Carriers] http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/opinion/columns/7954.html
[Press, Media] http://rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2010/10/launch_of_newsp.html and http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/USA-Lead-Extinction-Newspapers-2017-Followed-UK-Rest-World-Says-Leading-Media-Futurist-1344319.htm
[Mobile, Apple, iOS, App] http://mashable.com/2010/07/30/apple-itravel-virtual-closet-patents/
[Mobile, Smartphone, Market Share, Figures] http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/online_mobile/mobile-snapshot-smartphones-now-28-of-u-s-cellphone-market/ and http://mashable.com/2010/11/02/iphone-android-nielsen/
[Demand, Economy, Information Era, Industrialization] http://www.inc.com/magazine/20101101/the-demand-economy.html
[Attention, User, User Currencies] http://www.internetactu.net/2010/09/20/pdlt-lattention-une-valeur-culturelle-et-sociale/
[Customer XP] http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/build-bigger-shopping-baskets/
[Mobile, UI, GUI] http://perishablepress.com/press/2009/08/02/the-5-minute-css-mobile-makeover/
[Update] 2 interesting links by the great Mobile Marketer team from the ad:tech conference in NYC: http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/media/8001.html and http://www.mobilemarketer.com/cms/news/media/8006.html
Posted in Light Foresight
Tagged ad:tech, advertising, app, Apple, Attention, cable, Carriers, context, copyright, Customer XP, Demand, Economy, FCC, figures, GUI, Industrialization, Information Era, iOS, LBS, Location, Market Share, media, Mobile, Mobile Marketer, NYC, press, Privacy, Regulation, smartphone, TV, UI, US, user, User Currencies, video, Youtube
Intro: Adobe isn’t the only company being tempted by the sweet taste of HTML5, Microsoft has a hankering for the stuff too. Despite its past efforts to shape Silverlight into the leading cross-platform runtime for the web and the desktop, Microsoft now says that its strategy and plans for Silverlight “has shifted.”
- Bob Muglia, the president of Microsoft’s server and tools business said, “HTML is the only true cross platform solution for everything, including (Apple’s) iOS platform.”
- As a video technology — indeed even as an application technology — Silverlight and WPF are actually pretty nice. I attended a two-day XAML workshop held at Microsoft’s Atlanta offices in 2009 and was very impressed with the capabilities and the toolsets that were possible within Silverlight.
- Silverlight has had a problem gaining traction across the web. With the exception of the Olympics and a few other live broadcasts, you almost never see Silverlight used on the web.
- It’s clear that Microsoft — like Adobe, Apple and Google — sees that HTML5 is the technology that will work across the broadest stretch of devices — and more importantly, will work on future devices.
- Yes, the W3C has stated that the HTML5 spec isn’t yet ready for full use, and in a broad, global sense, this is true.
- As a technology, Silverlight has a lot of promise and we think it is still interesting. Still, we can’t help but think Microsoft is making a better strategic move to focus on HTML5 as its cross-platform solution going forward.
My Take: I’m also very surprised by this announcement, showing that a new (open and free) standard is rising. Mostly because I think having understood at REMIX 2010 that Silverlight is a cornerstone for developing on several Microsoft platforms.
But this comes from a server and tools business president and not by a business decision maker. Which could explain a CTO’s excitement for technological (un-mature) trends…
Intro: Last week, Apple officially announced the Mac App Store as a major new addition to the Mac software ecosystem. Although the Mac App Store will be an integral part of Mac OS X Lion, it will make its debut this winter. Developers will be able to start submitting their applications for review in November.
- When we spoke to him (Daniel Jalkut) last week after Apple’s announcement, Jalkut said one of his concerns about the Mac App Store was whether he was going to lose his connections with customers. “Starting with the Mac App Store we don’t know if the same shift will take place, where the customers are Apple’s, and we’re just manufacturers for Apple,” he said
- “After Apple’s success with the iOS App Store, many customers will think this is the only way to get software,” he said. “And by streamlining the install process, many customers who do know about other channels will find them distasteful in comparison.”
- an important difference between the Mac App Store and the iOS App Store is that “the Mac App Store is opt-in, but that means it’s also opt-out
- in order to be included in the store, developers will have to follow a set of rules that they didn’t have to follow before
- If the Mac App Store is to follow the iOS App Store in its policies, it won’t be possible to do traditional “upgrade” pricing. Instead, developers have to look at either releasing in-purchase content kits (which don’t really work for a totally new app version) or charging all users the same price for a new version of the app.
- Instapaper’s Marco Arment recently blogged that “The Mac App Store isn’t for today’s Mac developers.” Future Mac OS X developers are going to be more likely to gravitate toward the platform because of the Mac App Store. The number of iOS developers dwarfs the number of traditional Mac developers. While standard Cocoa has a lot more intricacies and can dive much deeper into hardware and file systems than what is allowed by Cocoa Touch, if you know Objective-C, you know Objective-C. The Mac App Store is going to bring a lot of new developers to the platform — and yes, we expect it will mean that smaller and more bite-sized programs will be created.
My Take: This is a very risky move from Apple who, even if they have gathered many developers on iOS, still doesn’t have a huge market share against Windows developers. And more important, didn’t give a sustainable business model to their iOS developers. iAd is not yet a success, free (or cheap) is the only way to differentiate apps on the App Store and the only mass money generator is 3rd party Ad networks (that Steve Jobs wanted to cut not so long ago).
The good point is that Apple seems to increasingly embrace transparency that becomes a market standard. They announce this platform in advance, don’t define strict rules at start and will probably define it (Boundary Object for those who follow;o) while building it, together with their complementors.
Apple is in fact initiating a new trend: multi-platform (but within an ecosystem) one-stop-shops, for both customers and developers. One log-in, one account, one rights-management platform for all the (Apple) devices! This will increase their platform utility and might be the right weapon to increase market shares towards Microsoft and Google.
Posted in Foresight
Tagged Ad, ads, advertising, app, App Store, Apple, Apps, Boundary Object, Business Model, CoCoa, Credentials, CRM, customer experience, Customer XP, Daniel Jalkut, developer, ecosystem, iAd, iOS, Lion, Log-in, Mac App Store, Mac OS X, Mac OS X Lion, Marco Arment, OS, Platform, platform logic, platform utility